Predictions vs Results: CISXC

For the sake of interest, here is a look at all the final CISXC polls, and of course the actual, final results. Mactrack did a good job of linking to all of them here, if you want to read the specifics. I’ve tallied just the picks in a table that I’m hoping is somewhat legible. Unfortunately I could not go back and get the Sporting Canada Coaches polls, as the site was updated with final results.

MEN

TNF NORTH

Slanders and Speculations

Putdowns and Prognostications

Montreal Endurance

London Runner

Actual Results

1

Guelph

Guelph

Guelph

Guelph

Guelph

Guelph

2

Windsor

Windsor

Windsor

Windsor

Windsor

Windsor

3

Queens

Queens

Queens

Laval

Queens

Victoria

4

Victoria

Victoria

Laval

Queens

Laval

Queen’s

5

Laval

Laval

Victoria

Victoria

Victoria

Laval

6

McMaster

McMaster

Toronto

Calgary

Toronto

McMaster

7

Calgary

Toronto

McMaster

McMaster

Calgary

Toronto

8

Toronto

Calgary

Calgary

Toronto

McMaster

Calgary

9

Regina

Alberta

St. FX

St. FX

St FX

10

Western

Manitoba

Regina

Regina

Regina

WOMEN

TNF

NORTH

Slanders and Speculations

Putdowns and Prognostications

Montreal Endurance

London Runner

Actual Results

1

Guelph

Guelph

Guelph

Victoria

Guelph

Guelph

2

McMaster

McMaster

McMaster

Guelph

McMaster

Victoria

3

Victoria

Victoria

Victoria

McMaster

Victoria

McMaster

4

Western

Sask

Western

Western

Western

Sask

5

Sask

Western

McGill

Sask

Sask

McGill

6

McGill

Dalhousie

Sask

McGill

McGill

Western

7

Dalhousie

McGill

Dalhousie

Dalhousie

Dalhousie

St FX

8

Calgary

Calgary

Calgary

Queens

Toronto

Laval

9

St. FX

Queens

Toronto

Queens

Calgary

10

Windsor

Toronto

Laval

Laval

Queens

 

 

So, let’s talk about the men first. Guelph was the consensus pick across the board for first, and Windsor was second. For third, most polls had Queens and despite my picking Laval, I think this was a good pick. Max Lebeouf was quite sick heading into the race, and clearly Dave Cashin was still hurt. Archer ran above expectations but this probably wasn’t a matter of Queens being over-estimated. It was likely a lack of confidence in the West Coast results. Still, everyone had the 3-4-5 teams correct, just not in the right order.

TNF and SS stuck with Mac, even after Yorke was out. Imagine if Yorke and Nova had been able to race. Coulda, woulda, shoulda… SS also got 7th and 8th right with Toronto and Calgary. 6-7-8 were also pretty well the same for everyone, just the order was off. I wonder if it is because the race was that easy to predict, or if it was because people were just riffing off each other.

On the last two spots, both Steve and I nailed it, while PP declined to even guess. SS had UofA and UofM, who ended up 11th and 12th respectively. Close. TNF North pollsters had Regina 9th, which was close, and Western 10th, which was probably a result of some voters not knowing that they would not be sending a full team.

Who had the best poll? Hard to say. SS probably had the best 1-8, but they whiffed in the last two. Steve and I were the only pollsters to get all ten teams right, if not in the right order. Good for us! 😉

On the women’s side, I admit to purposely stirring the pot and putting Victoria ahead of Guelph. If I’d done the obvious thing, and put Guelph first, I’d have been the only one to get the top three right. Everyone had Mac #2 and Vic #3. As with the men, everyone had 4-5-6 right, but not necessarily in the right order. SS hit on Sask in 4th and PP hit on McGill in 5th. Close call for SS with Western in 5th as they did tie, with McGill getting the spot on 5th runner. Dalhousie was on everyone’s list, but it was St. FX who came in 7th, ranked only by TNF North (and 9th in that poll). Only Steve and I put Laval in the top ten, and they outperformed even that with a solid 8th place, even though Cormier did not get the win. TNF had Windsor (11th) in 10th, the only poll to pick the Lancers.

In terms of surprises, if we go by the polls, St. FX outperformed, as did Laval, and Dalhousie disappointed. On the men’s side, there were no real surprises, unless you count Victoria’s bronze, but that was not such a reach.

So, what does this tell us? My guess is that aggregate polls are not as good at predicting the outcomes as individuals are. The TNF North poll was probably the farthest off (not by too much though), while the objective Steve Weiler was probably the best poll (though he only did it once. Maybe next year we can convince him to do more, though he was part of the TNF North poll). SS and PP have their biases. You might say I was biased for the Quebec conference, but I actually underrated both McGill and Laval on the women’s side compared to their actual finishes, even if I overrated Laval on the men’s side. Victoria, Saskatchewan and Calgary showed, again, that the West gets underrated (though Sask got a good amount of respect from all the pollsters on the W side).

That just about does it for cross country season. There’s just the small matter of the national championships in 10 days out at Jericho. Good luck everyone!